Kozlova O.A., Arkhangelskii V.N. Russian Fertility Forecast: Approaches, Hypotheses, and Results. Herald of the Russian Academy of Sciences. 2021. Vol. 91. No. 5. Pp. 548–556.

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Аннотация

Forecasts of the size and age–sex composition of the population are one of the most important applied results of demographic research. It is necessary to account for them when developing strategies and programs for the socioeconomic development of the country and its territories. The most difficult component to predict in demographic forecasts is the dynamics of fertility indicators, which, as a rule, are a consequence of the reproductive behavior of the population, influenced by various objective and subjective factors. The purpose of this study was to construct a fertility forecast based on calendar indicators for real generations of Russians. The possibilities and limitations of the main approaches to fertility forecasts are determined. An overview of trends in the dynamics of calendar fertility indicators for real generations is provided. Apparently the most likely hypothesis is formulated that the changes in the total fertility rate by birth order until 2030 may be determined by timing shifts in the calendar of births. A forecast of the fertility rates in real generations up to 2035 is constructed. On its basis, a direct conversion into age and total fertility rates using the distribution of one-year fertility rates is conducted. It has been established that the thus-calculated total fertility rate in Russia in 2050 may amount to 1.77.

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