Arkhangelsky V., Bogevolnov J., Goldstone J., Khalturina, Korotaev A., Malkov A., Novikov K., Riazantsev S., Rybalchenko S., Shulgin S., Steck P., Yuriev Y., Zinkina J., Zvereva N. Critical 10 years. Demographic Policies of the Russian Federation: Successes and Challenges. - Moscow: “Delo” Publishing House (RANEPA), 2015 – 125 pp.

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Critical 10 years. Demographic Policies of the Russian Federation: Successes and Challenges. - Moscow: “Delo” Publishing House (RANEPA), 2015 – 125 pp.

CONTENT ................................................................................................................................... 3

ACKNOWLEDGEMENTS ........................................................................................................ 5

EXECUTIVE SUMMARY ......................................................................................................... 6

SECTION I. CURRENT DEMOGRAPHIC SITUATION ................................................... 11

1.1. Birthrates .......................................................................................................................... 11
1.2. Imminent demographic dip .............................................................................................. 17
1.3. Mortality ........................................................................................................................... 17
1.4. Migration .......................................................................................................................... 23

SECTION II. FORECASTING RUSSIA’S DEMOGRAPHIC DEVELOPMENT............ 26

2.1. Demographic effect of comprehensive family policy using a minimum of 3% of GDP to this purpose ............................................................................................................ 32
2.2. Potential effects of stronger anti-alcohol policies ............................................................ 33
2.3. Strong effects of the complete elimination of excess mortality ....................................... 34
2.4. Combination of measures to prevent depopulation: the best-case scenario ..................... 35

SECTION III. DEMOGRAPHIC POLICY MEASURES .................................................... 39

3.1. Measures to support fertility ............................................................................................ 42

3.1.1. THE HIGH IMPORTANCE OF FAMILY VALUES IN RUSSIA ......................................................................... 44
3.1.2. FAMILY POLICY SPENDING .................................................................................................................... 47
3.1.3. ADDRESSING CHILDREN AND FAMILY POVERTY .................................................................................... 49
3.1.4. BENEFITS AND TAX REFUNDS FOR FAMILIES WITH CHILDREN................................................................ 51
3.1.5. COMBINING MOTHERHOOD AND CAREER .............................................................................................. 53
3.1.7. FLEXIBLE WORKING HOURS FOR WORKING MOTHERS ........................................................................... 62
3.1.8. HOUSING MEASURES ............................................................................................................................. 63
3.1.9. MANAGEMENT SOLUTIONS FOR EFFECTIVE IMPLEMENTATION OF DEMOGRAPHIC POLICY .................... 64

3.2. PUBLIC POLICY REGARDING MORTALITY REDUCTION ................................... 66

3.2.1. INTERNATIONAL EXPERIENCE REGARDING AN INCREASE IN LIFE EXPECTANCY ..................................... 66
3.2.2. HEALTHCARE SYSTEM PROGRESS.......................................................................................................... 67
3.2.3. MEASURES TO REDUCE MORTALITY FROM EXTERNAL CAUSES ............................................................. 70
3.2.4. ANTI-ALCOHOL POLICY......................................................................................................................... 70
3.2.5. COMPREHENSIVE ANTI-TOBACCO POLICY ............................................................................................. 71
3.2.6. KEY MEASURES TO REDUCE MORTALITY AMONG THE POPULATION OF THE RUSSIAN FEDERATION ...... 71

3.3. MEASURES TO OPTIMISE MIGRATION GROWTH ................................................ 74

CONCLUSION .......................................................................................................................... 78

APPENDICES ........................................................................................................................... 79

Appendix 1. Calculation methodology .................................................................................... 79
Appendix 2. On using external migration gains as the main source of resolving Russian demographic problems ............................................................................................................ 81
Appendix 3. Analysis of subprogram "Assistance to Voluntary Relocation to the Russian Federation of Compatriots Living Abroad" ............................................................................ 83
Appendix 4. Religious factor of fertility growth ..................................................................... 84
Appendix 5. Regional differences in natural population movement and regional demographic policy ....................................................................................................................................... 89
Appendix 6. Differences between rural and urban areas......................................................... 98
Appendix 7. February 2015 update. Looming demographic catastrophe and how to prevent it .................................................................................................................................. 100

Executive summary ............................................................................................................... 100

A7.1. The demographic situation in early 2015 .................................................................... 101
A7.2. Forthcoming demographic catastrophe "Alco-pessimistic scenario" .......................... 104
A7.3. How to prevent a demographic catastrophe ................................................................ 113

AUTHORS OF THIS REPORT ............................................................................................ 124